Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016637 0.018829 0.021203 0.023966 0.027094 0.030527 0.034582
2025-09-14 0.012633 0.015525 0.018925 0.023219 0.028503 0.034800 0.042885
2025-09-21 0.010557 0.013725 0.017663 0.022924 0.029779 0.038422 0.050177
2025-09-28 0.008931 0.012157 0.016355 0.022225 0.030239 0.040825 0.055916
2025-10-05 0.008244 0.011679 0.016331 0.023102 0.032732 0.045978 0.065658
2025-10-12 0.007588 0.011141 0.016127 0.023647 0.034742 0.050568 0.074969
2025-10-19 0.007060 0.010710 0.015999 0.024244 0.036822 0.055370 0.084959
2025-10-26 0.006419 0.010035 0.015433 0.024106 0.037750 0.058499 0.092656
2025-11-02 0.005905 0.009494 0.015004 0.024110 0.038857 0.061938 0.101071
2025-11-09 0.005360 0.008848 0.014346 0.023674 0.039199 0.064161 0.107677
2025-11-16 0.005033 0.008518 0.014152 0.023957 0.040703 0.068337 0.117807
2025-11-23 0.004649 0.008059 0.013703 0.023763 0.041375 0.071159 0.125844
2025-11-30 0.004424 0.007855 0.013672 0.024297 0.043367 0.076434 0.138721
2025-12-07 0.003999 0.007266 0.012932 0.023528 0.043005 0.077594 0.144372
2025-12-14 0.003694 0.006864 0.012483 0.023229 0.043445 0.080183 0.152814
2025-12-21 0.003362 0.006379 0.011844 0.022521 0.043056 0.081207 0.158370
2025-12-28 0.003281 0.006358 0.012050 0.023410 0.045744 0.088157 0.175908
2026-01-04 0.003160 0.006250 0.012081 0.023962 0.047820 0.094096 0.191957
2026-01-11 0.003055 0.006161 0.012140 0.024567 0.050042 0.100484 0.209450
2026-01-18 0.002870 0.005899 0.011840 0.024427 0.050744 0.103892 0.221078
2026-01-25 0.002717 0.005687 0.011621 0.024431 0.051737 0.107957 0.234421
2026-02-01 0.002529 0.005390 0.011206 0.023990 0.051752 0.109991 0.243550
2026-02-08 0.002428 0.005266 0.011137 0.024276 0.053342 0.115456 0.260665